January 2018

Understanding Extreme Waves

Just before Christmas, I was invited to speak at the 10th CMStatistics Conference at Senate House at the University of London. The conference is one of the largest Statistics conferences with over 1700 attendees. I was presenting my doctoral research at the conference; this was a great opportunity to revisit this work and particularly timely as a paper was recently published in Annals of Applied Statistics.

My talk focussed on developing methods to understand how the distribution of extreme wave heights will change under future climate change scenarios. Determining the distribution of future wave heights depends on knowledge of other factors such as wind speed and storm direction. Data from global climate models can also be used to provide an insight into the future large scale processes; however this information has to be downscaled to the local scale to produce site specific estimates that the oil firms can use.

The talk was well received and led to some interesting discussions about the value and uncertainty in information from climate models. The conference also gave me the opportunity to hear about recent advances across a variety challenges in Statistics. Highlights included methods to determine the likelihood of Facebook users posting original or existing content, understanding spatial dependence of extremes and the maximum possible value for earthquakes.

To view the slides from the presentation, please click here.

Author: Ross Towe